Archive for the ‘amateur draft’ Category

Draft talk

Tom Krasovic gives us a bunch of quotes and info regarding the Padres’ draft and their philosophy.

Seriously, great stuff – well worth a read.

Quick hits: Draft recaps

Geoff Young has some thoughts on the Padres’ draft, among other things, in his must-read weekly post.

Peter Friberg interviews prospect expert Johns Sickels about the draft. Sickels is pretty optimistic about the Padres’ selections, and he thinks all three early high school picks (Tate, Williams, Sampson) will sign.

At Mad Friars, John Conniff interviews Kevin Goldstein and Jim Callis. Both guys are very excited about the Pads’ picks.

Draft analysis at Friar Forecast

My first post (in a few months, anyway) is up at Friar Forecast, and it looks at the Padres draft trends over the last few years. Hopefully, it’s sorta interesting ….

Draft reaction

Dan at BtBS links to a bunch of blogger’s reaction to their team’s draft selections, as well as some general baseball sites like BP and BA. Great place to start if you’re interested in reading different takes on the draft.

Day 2 picks

Admittedly, I know little about any of these guys. Heck, I only have a passing familiarity with most of the first round guys.

Anyway, in the 4th round the Padres took right handed pitcher Keyvius Sampson from Ocala Forest HS.

Goldstein: “The Padres are surprisingly the first team to take a signability guy in Keyvius Sampson, a projectable RHP and one of the better arms in Florida. He’ll take more than 4th round money to sign, and the Padres continue to change their ways.”

DePo: “Keyvius is a very athletic right-handed starter with a fastball that ranges from 90-96 mph and a very good changeup. This season he posted a 0.83 ERA, pitching 59 innings, giving up 19 hits and 14 walks while striking out 113. We believe he has big upside as a starting pitcher.”

5th round:

Jason Hagerty, a switch hitting catcher from the University of Miami. Numbers:

Year Games BA OBP SLG Notes
2009 60 .315 .451 .630 Lead team in OBP, second in SLG
2008 41 .289 .360 .515 Sophomore season
2007 35 .195 .218 .278  

 

DePo: “Jason is a strong switch-hitting catcher with some power. He has also spent time at 1B, but we see him as a catcher.”

Round 6:

Jason Needy, HS righty from Santana HS.

DePo: “A San Diegan, James is a 6’5″ starting pitcher with a FB in the low 90’s with feel for both a breaking ball and a changeup. It’s nice to get a local in the mix, but this one was all about talent.”

Round 7:

Miles Mikolas, a righty from Nova Southeastern U (D2). From the school’s site:

Mikolas (Jr., Jupiter, Fla.) led the Sharks with a 2.06 earned run average while going 7-2 in 83.0 innings pitched. He threw four complete games, including two shutouts, in 11 starts. Mikolas is among the national leaders with 80 strikeouts to just eight walks on the season.

DePo: “A 6’5″ 220 lb starting pitcher, Miles has a fastball up to 94 with a good curveball. Is anyone sensing a trend?”

Round 8:

Nathan Frieman, first basemen from Duke. Numbers:

Year Games BA OBP SLG Notes
2009 59 .352 .463 .703 Hit 20 of Duke’s 53 HR
2008 38 .381 .447 .671 11 homers
2007 54 .369 .435 .553  

 

Nice bat. This is the kind of guy we’re used to the Padres picking, and I don’t say that in a negative light.

DePo: “A 6’8″ first baseman, Nate has monster power. This year, his senior year, he had 19 homers and just 24 strikeouts. As you can imagine, he makes a nice target over at 1B.”

Round 9:

Chris Fetter, RHP  from Michigan. Numbers:

Year Innings Strikeouts Walks Homers ERA
2009 97 103 17 4 3.26
2008 94.7 82 28 7 2.47
2007 70.7 48 21 5 4.71
2006 73 48 14 6 2.22

 

DePo: “A 6’8″, 230 lb starting pitcher, Chris had a huge spring after seeing a jump in his velocity up to 94 mph. In 94 innings this season he walked just 17 and struck out 103. At 6’8″ you could say he has good “downhill plane”.”

That’s a pretty good track record; a lot of innings.

Rapid fire:

Round Player School
10 Ryan Hinson (LHP) Clemson
11 Andrew Madrigal (RHP) Mt San Jacinto JC
12 Brayden Drake (3b) Missouri State
13 Matt Vern (1b) TCU
14 Nick Greenwood (LHP) Rhode Island
15 Matt Lollis (RHP) Riverside CC

Jerry Sullivan

Sullivan is the Padres’ third round selection. He’s a 6-4 righty from Oral Roberts. He made 15 starts and totaled 98 innings for ORU in 2009. He struck out 116 and walked 27, good for a 3.12 ERA. Oral Roberts, overall, struck out 498 in 423 innings and had a 3.76 ERA, so that gives you a little context. Sullivan’s career stats:

Year Innings Strikeouts Walks Homers ERA
2009 98 116 27 5 3.12
2008 104 108 25 7 3.88
2007 53 45 8 4 2.04
Overall 255 269 60 16 3.22

 

Boyd’s World has Oral Robert’s strength of schedule this year at 77 (out of 302). Their park factor from 05-08 is at 94, a bit of a pitcher’s park.

Everett Williams

I’ll admit that I really had no idea who the Padres were going to take with their second round pick (52nd overall). As far as the type of player, though, I was guessing a college guy. I was also guessing a pitcher, since Tate’s obviously a position player. But, more than that, I was guessing college.

They selected Everett Williams from McCallum High School in Texas. Shows you how much I know. A quick glance at Williams’ MLB.com report reveals a guy who sounds a lot like Donavan Tate. Great tools, good speed, good defender. Biggest question: can he hit?

Now, a lot of people are probably going to be a little confused. Why draft two similar players with the first two picks? I know I wasn’t expecting a player like Williams. However, I think it’s a fine strategy. Basically, I’m always for the “best player on the board” strategy, and I’m guessing that’s what the Padres are empolying. If both players develop as expected, one moves to a corner … or one gets traded. It really shouldn’t be a big concern and it’s a pretty good problem to have.

Little extra: Goldstein on Williams:

Kevin Goldstein (6:33:23 PM PT): Padres have the best pick in the round by a mile with EVerett Williams, the Texas outfielder who many saw as having first-round tools. His size worked against him in the end, but who thought the Pads would begin the draft with a pair of high risk/high upside guys

Donavan Tate

Well, it’s official now. The Padres have selected Donavan Tate, a high school centerfielder from Georgia. The pick is a bit of a departure from the Padres usual strategy of drafting signable college players. The price tag on Tate is rumored to be around $6 million+. While I have faith the Padres will get him signed, I’m not sure the process will be smooth.

On the field, Tate is an all around player, an ath-a-lete’s athlete. By all reports I’ve seen, his fielding is highly regarded. He should be able to stick in center. He also has good power. The biggest question mark, aside from signability, seems to be his bat, and whether or not he’ll hit for a high enough average to be an effective major leaguer.

If you like comparisons, some guys that make sense to me are Chris Young (Arizona version), Mike Cameron, and maybe a Cameron Maybin. Certainly, he’s a potential high-impact player. Of course, with that comes a pretty decent risk, a decent chance that he’ll flop or won’t live up to expectations.

Overall, however, I like the pick. $6 million seems like a lot for an unproven kid, but the chances of him being worth far more than that a few years down the line make him too tough to pass up.

Last minute rumblings

Jim Callis says the Padres are going with outfielder Donovan Tate. He’s “fairly certain” on 9 out of the first 10 picks, according the the BA draft blog.

I’ll save further comment until the pick is actually made, but this would certainly represent a bit of a change from what we’ve seen in the last few years. I’d be excited to add Tate into the organization.

Quick hits: Draft notes

Chris Jenkins has a good read on the Padres’ choices in the first round. Fuson:

“I’m certainly not afraid to take risk (on a high school player),” said Grady Fuson, the Padres’ vice president for scouting and player development. “I don’t know where people got that idea. I’ve been involved in signing Ben Grieve and Eric Chavez and Jeremy Bonderman (with the Oakland Athletics), John Danks (with the Texas Rangers), Jaff Decker (last year with the Padres). Those are all first-rounders, all of them high-schoolers.

“We’ve put together our list of the top 15 guys in this year’s draft, as we’ve ranked them, and there’s quite a few high school kids in there. But even with a kid who may be the whole package, you want to be sure of the intangibles. You want a kid who plays with passion, not a lazy kid, not a ‘hotshot.’ I’m not in this game to sign idiots.”

Daniel makes some very  good points here:

The main reason I will blindly support the pick is that the Padres have better scouting and analytical information at their disposal than we do.  If the Padres think Donovan Tate is better than Aaron Crow or any of the other top non-Strasburg arms, then they will probably take him.  From what I have read online, I personally prefer Crow, but I realize the publicly available information is incomplete, and unlikely to be as complete as the Padres’ information.  It seems silly to whine about the Padres potentially passing on “my guy,” when the information I used to determine “my guy” is not as good as the information the Padres are using to determine “their guy.”

I’m not sure if I’d quite go to that extreme, but I do believe the Padres front office has made enough intelligent moves to gain my trust, at least in general. And there is certainly no arguing with the fact that they have far more resources at their disposal than I do. It’s not even close.

Baseball Prospectus has plenty of draft coverage and they are doing their roundtable again during the draft. Looking forward to reading that; I’m pretty sure it’s free.

Baseball America is another obvious stop, though much of their stuff is behind the paywall (as is BP’s).

MLB’s draft central is a good place to see some video and scouting reports on many of the top prospects.

Beyond the Boxscore interviews John Sickels. Sickels talks a lot about college stats; here’s a snippet:

I’ve done a lot of work with college stats. They have some value, but you have to make very strong adjustments for things like park effects and level of competition. Another factor is that no two college teams play the same schedule due to the strong variations in non-conference opponents, so even comparing teams within the same conference is hard. You could throw out the non-conference numbers, but that makes the sample size even smaller. The numbers you look at are the same as you look at for pro players: for pitchers you want to see good K/IP and K/BB ratios, adjusted for context. For hitters I look very closely at BB/K/PA ratios, power production, all the standard stuff.

There’s quite a bit more. Good stuff.

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